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Utilisateur:Arthur Marchandise/Brouillon
The CHROME project : Building and evaluating multi-ensemble hydrometeorological chains in Mediterranean catchments
CHROME is the acronym of "Couplage Hydrométéorologique RégiOnal Multi-Ensembles". This project started in 2011 and joins the expertises of hydrologists from French National Service for Flood Forecasting (SCHAPI) and of meteorologists from METEO FRANCE.
This project aims at bulding a multi-ensemble hydro-meteorological discharge forectasting chain on Mediterranean catchments. Multi-ensemble means that both uncertainties on model structure and on rainfall forecast are considered. The mediterranean meteorological specificity -high and very space-variable rainfall intensity- is taken into account by using high resolution non-hydrostatic AROME NWP model outputs and four distributed rainfall/runoff model.
The different steps of this project are :
- assessing the weights of uncertainties in the different components of an multi-ensemble hydrometeorologic chain;
- evaluating the reliability and the sharpness of the forectased hydrographs thanks to hindcasts on past events;
- building user-friendly vizualisations of the chain outputs;
- building, testing and improving a real-time coupled hydrometeorological chain.
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Material and Methods
The study area is the Cevennes area, in the south-eastern part of France. This area is regularly submitted to Flash Flood due to heavy rainfalls : the order of magnitude of rainfall amounts triggering severe floods is about 200 mm in a few hours. Three catchments are focused on : The Gardon d'Anduze (545 km2), the Cèze in Bagnols-sur-Cèze (1400 km2) and l'Ardèche in Vallon-Pont-d'Arc (2000 km2). These outlets have been choosen because they are part of the Vigilance map (see Vigicrues) of the avaibility of rating curves for high levels.
Study of the uncertainties
Uncertainties due to the model structure
Uncertainties due to the forecasted rainfall
Building the real-time chain
Pilotage : Céline de Saint-Aubin, Léa Garandeau, Arthur Marchandise
Contributeurs : Céline Sorbet, Arthur Marchandise, Céline de Saint-Aubin, Vivien Pourret, Lylian Cortes, Kévin Larnier
Partenaires : Centre National de la Recherche Météorologique, Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse, Hydrosciences Montpellier, Service de Prévision des Crues Grand Delta
Note : d'autres personnes peuvent avoir contribué au contenu de cet article, [Consultez l'historique]. |
